Current Projects
The Fiscal Future of the United States: Analysis and Policy Options
 
A Joint Project of the National Academy of Public Administration and The National Academies (posted 4/17/2008)

Client/Funder:
The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

Purpose and Scope:
Recognizing that a long-term fiscal imbalance threatens our future and that corrective policies must be adopted soon to reduce the risk of more serious economic damage and disruption, the MacArthur Foundation has asked the two Academies to undertake a two-year effort to produce a guiding framework and alternative federal budget projections under a range of policy assumptions. These projections will show different paths to fiscal stability that reflect a diversity of values, preferences, and expectations held by segments of the American public.
 
A joint committee of the two Academies will guide the work. It will not recommend a single solution to the fiscal challenge.  Rather, it will provide a framework for understanding the challenge and a rigorous way of thinking about possible policy solutions.
 
This work is intended to inform and enlarge the public debate over our fiscal future.  A broader and deeper public dialogue using the results of this work may allow leaders to propose and the public to accept wrenching changes required to restore fiscal balance.
 
The final report will include:
 
1. Baseline projections of the federal budget, deficit, and debt, demonstrating the long-run consequences of continuing down the present budget path.
 
2. A fiscal framework and set of guiding principles for the development of alternative policy scenarios representing different value sets held by segments of the American public.  The framework may include the target date by which the federal budget would achieve sustainability.
 
3. Several policy scenarios, based on values and preferences shared by segments of the public, each showing a different path to reducing federal deficits and reaching fiscal sustainability. These scenarios will take into account alternative views of the roles individuals, employers, and government can play in restoring the country’s long-term fiscal health over the next several decades.
 
4. Options to improve fiscal transparency and discipline in the Federal budget process and more clearly disclose the long-term budget impacts of current policy choices.
 
5.  The final report also will summarize the methodological and evidentiary base for the baseline fiscal projections, explain how different values and attitudes have been reflected in the policy scenarios, and illuminate the consequences of the major budget and policy alternatives facing the U.S.
 
At the direction of the MacArthur Foundation, the project will use the NRC expert committee process to develop the baseline projections, the policy scenarios, and budget/debt estimates associated with different scenarios.

Committee:
John L. Palmer* (co-chair)
Rudolph G. Penner (co-chair)
Joseph Antos
Kenneth S. Apfel*
Richard C. Atkinson
Alan J. Auerbach
Rebecca M. Blank
Andrea L. Campbell
Chris Edwards
Dana P. Goldman
Robert F. Hale*
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick
Joseph J. Minarik*
Olivia S. Mitchell
Gilbert S. Omenn
June E. O’Neill
Paul L. Posner*
Robert D. Reischauer*
Margaret C. Simms
William E. Spriggs*
Thomas C. Sutton
Susan Tanaka
Ruth A. Wooden

Click here for committee biographies
 
Project Staff:
Steve Redburn*
Study Director
Phone: (202) 334-2483
E-mail: sredburn@nas.edu
 
Kathy Ruffing
Senior Program Officer
Phone: (202) 334-2463
E-mail: kruffing@nas.edu
 
Malay Majmundar
Research Associate
Phone: (202) 334-2478
E-mail: mmajmundar@nas.edu
 
Danielle Johnson
Senior Program Assistant
Phone: (202) 334-1654
E-mail: dajohnson@nas.edu

*National Academy of Public Administration Fellow

Meetings:

Meeting 1: July 14-15, 2008

July 14th, 8:30 – 3:45, open meeting
July 14th, 4:00 – 5:30, closed meeting
July 15th, 8:30 – 12:30, closed meeting

Location: Room 204, The Keck Center, National Academy of Sciences, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001

For current updates and additional information, access the National Academy of Sciences website at: http://www8.nationalacademies.org/cp/committeeview.aspx?key=48941
 
For further information, contact Lois Fu at (202) 204-3666 or lfu@NAPAwash.org.