In 2016, a Panel of distinguished Academy Fellows prepared a report for the future Administration on strategic foresight in governance and the integration of long-term planning in daily policymaking. Their primary question was: How can we best ensure that the long term is properly factored into day-to-day policymaking? It has been done it before – just look back at the race to the Moon or the development of the Internet.
Yet today, government leaders repeatedly fail to assess the potential effect of actions today on events tomorrow—or into the more distant future. To be sure, there are a few selected areas within the U.S. federal government that incorporate a future-oriented focus, such as in the financial, defense, intelligence, and health arenas. In the main, however, senior leaders lack an overarching commitment to address the future impact of current decision-making, even in cases when the potential consequences of today’s actions are easily foreseeable. As a result of this lack of commitment to understanding the potential impact of future trends has contributed to an increase in large-scale government failures over the last two decades.
But such failures are not inevitable. The next President and his / her Administration can take steps to ensure they are not tarred by costly shocks or strategic failures by committing now to integrating the use of Strategic Foresight into their decision-making processes. Get more content like this
How can we best ensure that the long term is properly factored into day-to-day policymaking?
In preparation for the 2008 presidential transition, the National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) published an issue paper, Governing with Foresight...
Does it make any sense for the government to think long term? We’ve done it before – think about the interstate highway system, the race to the Moon, or the evolution of the Internet. Strategic foresight is not futuristic forecasting...
Strategic foresight can inform national policy in the face of profound uncertainty about what lies ahead. It recognizes the requirement to look beyond the horizon...
During the 1970s the planning and foresight community worked very hard to incorporate the long view – foresight perspective and practices...
Cross-agency collaboration is essential for effective strategic foresight. How can existing efforts be improved to achieve this goal?
The demand for measurable outcomes has historically posed an enduring challenge for Strategic Foresight projects both within and beyond governments. As Robert Shea observes...
In discussing the value of strategic foresight, it is important to distinguish it from forecasting. Forecasting seeks to predict discrete events in the future. By contrast, strategic foresight seeks to help...
We are entering a season when many groups are thinking about how to advise the next Administration on matters of policy, organization, or both. NAPA is now working on this...
How can a new President assess the risks, challenges, and opportunities of his or her agenda – and more importantly, what actions can be taken now to improve the chances of success or avoid failure?
Governments around the world are faced with existing and evolving challenges that require thoughtful, flexible and innovative approaches to address them...